Leading scholar says anger in Russia could be Putin's downfall

24x7liveindia
Mar 03, 2023 10:57
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Leading scholar says anger in Russia could be Putin's downfall
Revered French historian Helene Carrere d'Encausse believes mounting opposition in Russia to the invasion of Ukraine could ultimately see President Vladimir Putin lose his grip on power. She's been right about downfalls at the Kremlin before.Carrere d'Encausse, who serves as the permanent secretary of the French Academy, predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union in a book published in 1978.She says Putin has deep-rooted contempt for Ukrainians because he considers them to be devoid of "national personality." As for why the Russian leader decided to invade, she says we must look back to an incident in the mid-20th century known as the Prague Spring.
As the war continues with no end in sight, there has been much speculation about Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s refusal to attend the G20 summit in Bali and his recent decision to dispatch Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of Russia’s Security Council, to Beijing. Analysts have focused on Putin’s failed military offensive in Ukraine, his fear of Covid-19, and possible health issues related to cancer. Russian historians, however, recognize a more likely scenario behind these developments.

Alpatov, a member of the “Moscow clan,” has been the acting head of the Economic Security Service (ESS) for more than a year. Tkachev, on the other hand, is thought to be part of the clan of Igor Sechin, Putin’s longtime lieutenant and the CEO of Rosneft, the largest Russian state-owned oil producer.

Alpatov has reportedly maintained ties to some Western-leaning oligarchs who are unhappy with Putin’s leadership ruining their business empires, including the former shareholders of the Yukos oil company, which was expropriated by Putin and Sechin in 2004. Former Yukos CEO Mikhail Khodorkovsky is now challenging the regime from exile and is believed to have allies not just among the Russian business elite and intelligentsia, but even within the FSB. According to some reports, while at the helm of the FSB’s M Directorate, which oversees the Prosecutor General’s Office, the Investigative Committee of Russia, and  Russia’s judges, Alpatov allegedly intervened to slow down the making of a new criminal case against former Yukos management and shareholders.

Corruption is widespread among all of Putin’s subordinates. In just one widely reported case, FSB colonels Kirill Cherkalin and Dmitry Frolov used their authority and connections to embezzle hundreds of millions of dollars from the Russian people. Much of it was done with the knowledge of then-First Deputy Director of the FSB Sergey Smirnov, and his successor, Sergei Korolev, is widely believed to be embroiled in similar schemes.

Add to the above the health issues that Putin continues to face. Earlier this year, a now years-old conversation reignited when Putin was shown tightly gripping a table during a 12-minute video clip of a meeting with Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu. He tapped his foot and slouched throughout the course of the clip, which was released by the Russian government. His face was noticeably bloated.

The video prompted some online commentators, including former UK Conservative Party parliamentarian Louise Mensch, to draw the conclusion on Twitter that the Russian president has Parkinson's disease.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not survive longer than a year and will not see his next birthday on October 7, said Ilya Ponomarev, a former deputy of the country's Federal Assembly. Speaking to the UK's news agency Express, Ponomarev said Putin's downfall will come when Ukraine reclaims Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.